Bio
I am an assistant professor (senior lecturer) at the Department of Economics at Monash University. My research interests lie at the intersection of Politics, Environment, and Development Economics. It has been published in journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Public Economics.
I have co-founded Data Basis (Base dos Dados), a nonprofit start-up with the mission to make access to high-quality data universal in Brazil and internationally. We build tools such as a search engine and a public datalake to facilitate data work for academics, journalists, policy makers, companies, and developers.
Affiliations: Data Basis, SoDa Labs, CDES
CV: Vitae, Lattes, Github, Google Scholar
Social Networks: Twitter, LinkedIn
Email: ricardo.dahis@monash.edu
NOTE: For Data Basis-related issues, please contact the project directly, read the documentation and FAQ, or ask the community on Discord! I may not reply to email about it (why?).
Advising and Teaching
For current and prospective students, RAs, and postdocs: please read this.
Advising Hours (Monash only):
Shedule here.
Office Hours (Monash only):
Shedule here.
Open Door (for those in Brazil or members of under-represented groups):
Shedule here.
Teaching Materials
Publications
(with Arthur Bragança )
Journal of Public Economics, Volume 215, 104753
September 2022
Abstract (click to expand): Government policies may impact economic outcomes directly but also indirectly through effects on political incentives. This paper examines the effects of the PPCDAm -- a centralized set of environmental policies that effectively raised the expected cost of illegal deforestation -- on the behavior of a powerful special-interest group operating in the Brazilian Amazon: farmers. Using different identification strategies, we document that municipalities governed by farmer politicians experienced larger declines in deforestation, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, and violence than municipalities governed by other politicians after this set of policies were implemented. Our findings are consistent with the PPCDAm changing political incentives in a persistent way that amplifies its impact on environmental and social outcomes.
Published version
(with Laura Schiavon Thiago Scot )
Accepted - Review of Economics and Statistics
January 2023
Abstract (click to expand): In the absence of strong incentives, public service delivery crucially depends on bureaucrat selection. Despite wide adoption by governments, it is unclear whether civil service examinations reliably select for job performance. We investigate this question focusing on state judges in Brazil. Exploring monthly data on judicial output and cross-court movement, we estimate that judges account for at least 23% of the observed variation in number of cases disposed. With novel data on admission examinations, we show that judges with higher grades perform better than lower-ranked peers. Our results suggest competitive examinations can be an effective way to screen candidates.
Published version
Folha de São Paulo
(with Rafael H. M. Pereira Renato S. Vieira Fernando Bizzarro Rogério J. Barbosa Daniel Travassos Ferreira )
Accepted - Electoral Studies
September 2023
Abstract (click to expand): Transportation costs are an under-studied barrier to political participation. In many elections worldwide, subsidies to voter transportation are already provided or are under discussion. However, these types of incentives have not been rigorously evaluated. Here we examine possibly the world’s largest-ever intervention to lower these costs, the adoption of a fare-free public transit policy in Brazil during the 2022 national election, when about half of Brazilian voters were granted the right to use public transit for free on election days. However, while some cities adopted the benefit for both rounds of the election, others adopted it only for the second round. Using an event study design, we exploit this difference in adoption timing to examine the policy’s causal impact on voter turnout rates and human mobility levels. We find that fare-free transit increased ridership between 7.2% and 17.5% on election days, however, we estimate a precise and robust null effect of the policy on voter turnout (Coef. 0.03p.p. with standard error of 0.22p.p.). Our results illustrate that monetary transport costs may not always be a critical factor behind non-participation. Although reducing transportation costs improves access to polling places, we show that even a full transit subsidy may not be sufficient to increase voter turnout.
Folha de São Paulo
Ipea
Working Papers
(with Iván de las Heras Santiago Saavedra )
Submitted
September 2023
Abstract (click to expand): Policies often entail costs today but benefits only far into the future, as in climate change mitigation. An essential aspect of how this trade-off is faced relates to how young are the politicians in power. We study closely contested elections in Brazil and show that young politicians reduce deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions with no significant effects on local income. We further show that young politicians invest in long-term policy and hire more young bureaucrats. Our results suggest a cohort effect: young politicians matter not because of their age, but because they are part of a new generation.
SocArXiv
MiDES: New Data and Facts from Public Procurement and Budget Execution in Brazil
(with Thiago Scot Bernardo Ricca Lucas Nascimento Nathalia Sales )
August 2023
Abstract (click to expand): This paper introduces a new disaggregated and harmonized dataset on public procurement and budget execution by Brazilian subnational entities, which currently covers half of Brazilian municipalities and spans the years 2003-2021. It then uses these data to provide new stylized facts about local public finance. First, it shows that about one-quarter of government purchases are from suppliers in the same municipality and discusses its possible implications for efficiency in public purchases. Second, it creates a measure of payment delay to suppliers: close to 15\% of total payments are delayed by more than 30 days and payment timeliness is systematically correlated with local income.
(with João Pedro Vieira Juliano Assunção )
Submitted
August 2023
Abstract (click to expand): We study how environmental sanctions and spillovers improve forest conservation in the Brazilian Amazon. Using a difference-in-differences framework and novel farm-level data, we show that sanctions curbed deforestation and promoted reforestation among punished farmers and their neighbors. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that even sanctions with limited incapacitation potential elicited relevant behavioral changes. In particular, farmers’ responsiveness to sanctions coincided with the government’s commitment to enforcement. We do not find substantial evidence of spatial displacement or monitoring evasion. Overall, sanctions prevented 1.6 billion tons of CO2 emissions between 2006 and 2019, equivalent to 31% of US emissions in 2021.
SocArXiv
(with Christiane Szerman )
Submitted
July 2023
Abstract (click to expand): Changes in political boundaries aimed at devolving power to local governments are common in many countries. We examine the economic consequences of redistricting through the creation of smaller government units. Exploiting reforms that led to sharp variations in the number of government units in Brazil, we show that voluntary redistricting increases the size of the public sector, public services delivery, and economic activity in new local governments over the long-term. These benefits are not offset by losses elsewhere and are stronger in peripheral and remote backward areas that are neglected by their parent governments. We provide evidence that the decentralization of decision-making power boosts local development in disadvantaged areas beyond simply gains in fiscal revenues.
BBC Brasil
(with Diego Cardoso )
Submitted
July 2023
Abstract (click to expand): Cost-benefit analyses in public health typically calculate the benefits of mortality reduction interventions by multiplying the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and the expected decrease in fatalities. This procedure approximates the benefits of small mortality changes but is inaccurate for large risk changes because it holds constant the VSL---an estimate of a marginal rate of substitution. Building on the theoretical framework of the VSL, we outline a practical approach to calculate the benefits of non-marginal mortality reductions with empirically-calibrated compensating variations. We derive closed-form expressions that are easy to calculate and only require widely-available mortality statistics.
CNN Brasil
Instituto Mercado Popular
(with Emily Nix Nancy Qian )
June 2020
Abstract (click to expand): This paper documents that a large number of African American men experienced a change in racial identity to white during 1880 to 1940, while analogous changes were negligible for other races. We provide descriptive evidence that is consistent with the conventional wisdom that “passing” for white was a response to severe discrimination, and came at great personal cost. The findings suggest that contrary to traditional economic thinking, racial identity is neither entirely exogenous nor fixed over the lifetime, and responds to incentives.
The Weeds (40:45)
Kellogg Insight
(with Pedro Bessone Lisa Ho )
April 2021
Abstract (click to expand): What is the impact of mobile broadband internet on children's test scores? We compare standardized test scores before and after the staggered entry of 3G into Brazil's 5,570 municipalities using a heterogeneity-robust event-study design. We find no effects of mobile internet on test scores for 5th or 9th grade students, and can reject effect sizes of 0.04 standard deviations in both math and Portuguese. Taken together, our results indicate that the arrival of high-speed mobile internet is not suf- ficient to improve educational outcomes either through direct take-up by individuals or through broader changes to the economy.
Work in Progress
Speed of Payment in Procurement Contracts: The Role of Political Connections
(with Bernardo Ricca Thiago Scot )
Abstract (click to expand): We provide evidence of a new channel through which politicians can exchange favors with campaign donors: earlier payment in procurement contracts. We explore an electoral reform that bans corporate contributions and partially breaks down the relationship between donors and politicians. Using a within-firm difference-in- differences identification strategy, we find that the payment period to firms that donate to the coalition government increases after the reform. The effect is larger in municipalities with low liquidity and for contracts allocated through competitive procurement methods. Our results point to the importance of designing rules that curb discretion over payment dates.
The Labor Union-Politics Pipeline
(with Lorenzo Lagos )
Housing Microfinance and Climate Resilience in the Philippines
(with Teevrat Garg Russell Toth )
Abstract (click to expand): Low-income households in the Philippines lack sufficient access to affordable and resilient housing to protect them from the physical and economic damages brought by increasingly frequent extreme weather events, such as typhoons and floods. We partner with a large microfinance NGO and an NGO focused on housing for low-income households, to evaluate a new housing microfinance product. We will run a 2x2 randomized evaluation that cross-randomizes the education component (versus no education) and the new housing loan terms (versus being offered the old housing loan terms), against a control group. The main outcomes are short-term impacts on perceptions of climate risk and resilience, knowledge and plans for house construction, and other measures of resilience. The study will create new knowledge about how to support low-income households in obtaining housing that is resilient to extreme weather events, which is relevant across a number of developing countries that are vulnerable to climate change.
AEA RCT Registry 9124
Export-Induced Deforestation and Political Change: The Unintended Consequences of the Rise of China
(with Lei Li )
Promotions, Performance, and Diversity in the Brazilian Judiciary
(with Laura Schiavon Thiago Scot Leopoldo Gutierre )
Killing the Forest: Assassinations and Deforestation in Brazil
(with Mariana Carvalho )
Other Writing
(with João Carabetta Fernanda Scovino Frederico Israel Diego Oliveira )
July 2022
Abstract (click to expand): In this paper we explain how the Data Basis platform helps decisively solve the data access problem for different types of users. We describe its core products: a powerful search engine, a freely accessible data lake featuring a unified schema and hundreds of interoperable tables, and APIs in various programming languages. We exemplify the platform’s utility with discussions of three datasets on labor markets, elections, and local public finances in Brazil. The project is extraordinarily cost-effective: dividing a measure of yearly benefits generated by a conservative estimate of yearly costs to run the organization yields a lower bound social return of 74. We conclude by laying out a roadmap to guide the organization's future steps.
March 2021
September 2020
Abstract (click to expand): Assuming that ideology, or political positions, can be meaningfully partitioned into groups of issues, in this essay I outline a nine-dimensional political label that is (i) much more informative than a one-dimensional left-right divide and (ii) still relatively simple to communicate. I first describe political labels as simplifying devices that reduce dimensionality from the full position space, then introduce the label and, lastly, I discuss how the framework relates to basic questions in politics.
May 2020
Abstract (click to expand): This essay introduces the concept of a belief cloud as a representation of belief structure over claims humans can make. It divides claims into facts, and those others that are still open for debate. The cloud represents the current state of our knowledge, and it also helps visualizing how it grows. Based on this framework, I discuss various applications in communication, policy making, business, and science.
May 2019
Abstract (click to expand): This essay provides coherent definitions of two bedrock concepts in philosophy and statistics: randomness and probability. When constructing the first, I define repeatability, the measurement set, and distinguish between frequency vs. value prediction. The definition of randomness proposed, namely of a random variable not being perfectly value-predictable for any given information set, is stronger than those commonly used in the literature. Second, after defining probability as a theory about a variable's potential frequency distribution, I argue that the dichotomy between frequentist and bayesian interpretations is illusory. I conclude with remarks about knowledge and determinism.
February 2018
Abstract (click to expand): Is economics a science? Answering this question is not only necessary for philosophical clarity, but also crucial for knowing how seriously to take economists’ claims and advice about public policy. Nevertheless, even among practitioners and academics, consensus is nonexistent. This paper resolves the conundrum in two steps. First I discuss some epistemology of science, defining clearly various concepts necessary to the debate. Several fallacies are clarified, such as "a theory may never be proved true, but only not falsified", "a model is useful because it simplifies reality" or "data mining is bad". In light of solid philosophical ground, I then discuss the practice and methodology of modern economics. The answer to the title question is a perhaps disappointing, but realistic, not yet. I conclude with prescriptions for a path towards a more scientific discipline.
Code
Cleaning the 'Relação Anual de Informações Sociais' (RAIS) dataset on Stata, 1985-2018
Github Repository
Template for Empirical Papers
This folder provides an all-encompassing working structure for empirical papers. It organizes every step of the process: merging and cleaning (several) data sets, performing analyses (tables, figures, regressions), writing the article itself and also presentations.
Github Repository
Personal
Ice Cream Map: Mapping and reviewing ice cream spots worldwide, one at a time.
